Relations with Iran. Or, Aretha had it right this whole time, R-E-S-P-E-C-T

Say what you will about the President, but the man has a way with details. Over the past week or so there have been several interviews with administration officials, including the POTUS himself and SecState Clinton, during which they referred to Iran as the Islamic Republic of Iran. I don't recall hearing the country's full name used at all during the Bush administration; he preferred "Iran," "Axis of evil," or "threat to world peace." It's a very nice touch given that the U.S. is currently attempting to build a relationship with Iran based on respect rather than fear or bullying.

The budding U.S./Iran relationship hit a high note today when the U.S. envoy to Afghanistan and the Iranian foreign minister held an impromptu meeting during an international conference on Afghanistan. Afghanistan may be the glue that could hold together a sure-to-be-rocky-at-best working relationship between the U.S. and Iran.

The U.S. for obvious reasons wants to see a stable Afghanistan. For starters, stability and a strong government could mean an end to Afghan terrorist safe-havens. The greater the stability, the less American troops would be needed and the more energies could be focused on other problem areas of the world like Israel or North Korea. A stable Afghanistan would likely ease some of the tension in Pakistan's border areas as well.

Iran too has its reasons for wanting calm in Afghanistan. The Taliban were fierce enemies of Iran from the start, and the two almost came to war in 1998. Iran also seeks an end to the mass poppy production in Afghanistan, as huge numbers of Iran's many unemployed are now addicted to drugs.

Teamwork between the U.S. and Iran has many potential dividends to yield. It is commonly accepted that Iran supplied Iraqi insurgents with EFPs (Explosively Formed Penetrators)- a very deadly type of roadside bomb. Keeping the advanced weaponry at Iran's disposal out of the hands of Afghan insurgents would help keep coalition casualties down. Current land routes through Pakistan have come under frequent attack recently, and the impending closure of Manas Air Force Base in Kyrgyzstan, through which the bulk of supplies flows into Afghanistan, will leave the U.S. and its allies in search of additional resupply routes. Were relations to improve dramatically, Iran could provide an important overland resupply route into Afghanistan.

Finally, and perhaps most importantly, if the U.S. and Iran find that they are able to work together on the Afghanistan issue, they may find it easier to work together on other pressing issues- such as Iran's nuclear developments. A little respect from the U.S. could go a long way.

DPRK Missile Launch

First, let me apologize to my 2 or 3 faithful readers. I've been quite busy as of late, and will likely remain so for the following week. After which point the posting should become semi-regular once more.

As for the good stuff, North Korea will likely be testing its newest ICBM in the first week of April. They claim the launch is to put a communication's satellite into orbit, though the real goal is to test the rocket's ability to carry an object ( e.g.- a nuclear weapon) into orbit. If successful, which given North Korea's history of failed rocket tests is a big if, it supposedly has the capability of striking U.S. territory.

NK has stated that they would consider the shooting down of their missile an act of war, to which the U.S. responded to by placing Aegis Destroyers in the region capable of downing the missile. Japan is joining the fun by also placing Aegis destroyers equipped with missile killing missiles in the area.

For a neat, yet technical, rundown of the rocket's potential capabilities based on the splash down zones announced by NK, see this post over at ArmsControlWonk. Otherwise, sit back, relax, and wait for the fun to begin sometime between April 4th and 8th.

Top 5...St. Patrick's Day edition!

1. Are The Troubles back in Northern Ireland? Probably not, though there have been some worrying signs as of late. First two soldiers were killed and two more wounded by members of RIRA (Real Irish Republican Army) on March 7th. Then, on the 9th, a constable was killed by members of CIRA (Continuity Irish Republican Army). This past Saturday, after police arrested several well known Republicans and were continuing with the investigations, groups of Republicans gathered and began tossing Molotov cocktails (or petrol bombs as the British call them- has a nice ring to it) at the police.

Loyalists should be commended, as there have been no counter-attacks thus far. All the major players from The Troubles have been calling for cooler heads to prevail; Loyalist-in-chief Ian Paisley, Sinn Fein head honcho Gerry Adams, and PIRA (Provisional Irish Republican Army) terrorist turned MP Martin McGuinness each condemned the newest round of violence.

My favorite quote from this whole mess?

Easily the most eerie aspect of the last couple of days for me has been the sound on my car radio of Martin McGuinness, allegedly once a senior IRA commander, sounding just like a Northern Ireland Secretary of State from the Eighties.

2. The Pope is at it again. Every time I want to take a break from talking about that guy with the funny hat, he goes and does something so crazy I just can't resist. His latest move? Claiming that condom use may actually make the African AIDS epidemic worse, and that abstinence is the only way to prevail.

Comprehensive research by the American Psychological Association (and many other groups) shows that abstinence only education and Comprehensive sex education have both been shown to delay sexual activity in youths. The catch is that those who receive comprehensive sex education remain abstinent for much longer than those who receive abstinence only education. And because they have little clue how to protect themselves or the importance of doing so, those who receive abstinence only education are far more likely to catch diseases such as HIV/AIDS.

Even if abstinence before marriage were something important (and that's one hell of a big "if"), the strange paradox is that more couples would remain abstinent if people in positions of authority like the Pope encouraged comprehensive sex education and condom use, rather than turn a blind eye to how the world actually works. The numbers don't lie. Dogma is fine and dandy, but helping people is better.

The Pope can have his dog and pony no-option-but-abstinence-show, but I can't help but wonder how many millions more will contract HIV/AIDS because the Pope lacks the courage to say "don't have sex, but if you do- make sure your soldier has his helmet on."

*Warning- from here on out, the Top 5 have nothing remotely to do with St. Patrick's day. What? Did you really think the Irish are that interesting?*

3. The Soviet Union Russia has announced a major rearmament program. Frightened by recent NATO expansions, instability on their border, and extensive equipment and tactical problems while kicking Georgia's bottom all over the Caucasus this past summer, Russia plans on spending $140 billion to modernize their military. As this BBC article points out, major increases in defense spending were less of a problem when Russia was making money hand over fist with oil sales. Now that oil is at $40/barrel, instead of the nearly $150/barrel from last year, building a new army might be easier said than done.

4. France is set to rejoin NATO's military command. President Sarkozy won a parliamentary vote today, permitting France to re-integrate into the NATO military structure. France pulled out of the NATO military command in 1966. Then President De Gaulle thought the move was the only way to ensure France's sovereignty and independence. France has continued to supply troops to NATO missions however, but ironically enough, because of De Gaulle's move has had no say in the decision making process. Sarkozy is pushing the re-integration as a means to increase French influence in NATO and to give France a say at how their troops are used. There will be little practical difference, as French troops have been tagging along on NATO missions for quite a while, but it is a show of solidarity with the alliance that is sorely needed at this moment.

5. A major change could be en route at the Pentagon. For years, U.S. war-fighting doctrine has called for the DOD to be able to fight two major wars simultaneously. Such planning assumed the military would be engaged in conventional fights from which it could disengage once the fighting was over. However, the wars the U.S. are actually engaged in have vastly different requirements; mainly long term commitments of many troops. These long wars have placed quite a strain on the military in terms of both manpower and equipment.

The new idea is to rebuild the military so that it can handle many and varied operations; from fighting the conventional combatant to the counter-insurgent, and from peacekeeping to protecting U.S. territory. Or, as one defense expert puts it "a multiwar, multioperation, multifront, walk-and-chew-gum construct." Sounds interesting, and much needed. I'll be commenting more on this whenever the new plans are made public.

Hey, Wall Street Journal...get your own ideas

Last week, I discovered that SecState Clinton is basing major policy decisions on recommendations from this blog. Now, it has come to my attention that the Wall Street Journal published an opinion piece today eerily similar to my post from yesterday on the economic woes of the Middle East and how they affect the peace process. See for yourself.

The 8th Pillar-"...any comprehensive Middle East peace plan needs to address the area's core economic needs if it is to be a lasting peace."

WSJ- "In order to succeed -- finally -- peace efforts need to create positive incentives. An economic peace process can create such a reality."

The 8th Pillar- "Provide jobs and opportunity however, and suddenly all these disaffected youths who want to remake the world quickly become invested in maintaining the status quo."

WSJ- "Yet despite strenuous efforts by Palestinian terrorist organizations to inflame the city (Jerusalem) with repeated attacks, income from tourism has been so rewarding that Jerusalemites coexist without too many problems."

While imitation is the sincerest form of flattery, credit should be given where credit is due. Wall Street Journal- I'll expect to see my name in the byline next time.

The Catholic church is wrong. Again.

I swear I'm not purposefully picking only on Catholics. I find all religions distasteful. Catholics just make it easier to pick on them.

Last week, a doctor in Brazil performed an abortion on a nine year old girl. The girl was pregnant with twins after being repeatedly raped by her step-father over the course of a three year period. Though abortion is normally outlawed in Brazil, exceptions are made in cases of rape. An Archbishop for Brazil promptly excommunicated the Catholic doctor, the nurses and staff who assisted with the abortion, and the girl's mother. The girl herself was spared because the Vatican does not excommunicate minors. Also missing from the list those banished from the church over the incident: The step-father who raped and impregnated the young girl.

Now, I could easily make some tasteless joke involving the child-raping step-father, scandal ridden Catholic clergy, a pot, a kettle, and someone not wanting to call someone else black, but I'll refrain.

I understand the church's stance on abortion. Trust me- I have several Catholic family members who have made it disturbingly clear just what the church has told them to think. Regardless of what a person believes regarding abortion though, surely it is wrong to punish the doctor but not the step-father. I'm sure some believers will argue that the step-father will receive his punishment in the afterlife. Well that's bull. I doubt that argument will give much solace to the young girl who has been raped since the age of six.

Intent matters. And from where I'm sitting, the church's official position is that it is alright to punish a doctor who in his heart wanted to help a girl out of an awful predicament, but that no punishment is needed for the man who had nothing but evil in his heart (assuming he even has one). Even if you think the doctor's act was a sin, his intentions were at least far better than the young-child-raping, still-able-to-attend-mass step-father.

Get it together Catholics and pull your collective head out of your fourth point of contact. No wonder the number of folks claiming to have no religion has doubled since 1990. Us heathens are on the march!

It's the economy, stupid

While I'm on a demographics kick, allow me to demonstrate one of the reasons why there are so many terrorists coming out of the Middle East. You know the old saying, "idle hands are the Devil's playthings"? Substitute "terrorist organization's" for "Devil's" and you may start to get the picture. In counties all across the Middle East, there are rather large amounts of youths. Unfortunately, there aren't jobs to keep them all busy. These are men (no, I'm not forgetting you women out there, but this is the Middle East I'm talking about here) who desperately want to work and earn a living. It's a matter of honor. But without an economy able to support their disproportionately large numbers, they are left disaffected. From there it's rather easy for some firebrand or ideologue to come along and convince these youths that the state of their economy (and whatever other woes plague society) are the fault of the Western oppressors. Especially when they offer a salary, as so many terrorist organizations do.

Here's a look at the population pyramid for the Gaza Strip. It's a similar story in countries across the greater Middle East.

In contrast, here is the population pyramid for the United States.

This is why it is so crucial that any plan to combat the type of extremism we are now facing in the Middle East addresses the widespread economic problems facing the region. Most people would rather go to work than blow themselves up at a discotheque. The West can't kill its way into the victory circle. Provide jobs and opportunity however, and suddenly all these disaffected youths who want to remake the world quickly become invested in maintaining the status quo.

How important is this issue? Very. To give an idea of what is looming, I'll end with Saudi Arabia's projected population pyramid for 2050. Again, it's the same all throughout the Middle East. I'll even give a hint- it involves lots and lots of young people looking for purpose in their life. If they can't fulfill that purpose with employment, I guarantee they'll find another outlet; one the West may not like very much. Diplomacy and treaties do help; but any comprehensive Middle East peace plan needs to address the area's core economic needs if it is to be a lasting peace.

Russia's Number 1!!! (and disappearing)

The number one user of heroin that is, at least according to Russia. Following a 70% increase in seizures of heroin when compared to last year, Russia now estimates there are 2.5 million heroin users out of a population of 140 million.

This does not bode well for Russia's demographics. Widespread poverty and rampant alcoholism have already left Russian males with an average life span of 61 years, and Russia is the only industrialized country to have seen a drop in average life spans. The total population drops by over 500,000 each year, though the state has tried their best to reverse this trend; a new holiday, Family Contact Day, has been created during which couples are supposed to remain home from work and do their part to repopulate Mother Russia.

Looking at population pyramids for Russia, one can see that by 2050, there are very few young; their pyramid doesn't actually look too much like a pyramid.

Obviously, such a change in demographics will be a disaster to Russia's economy in the long term, as there will be fewer and fewer workers supporting more and more elderly. This will likely also have large consequences for Russia's grand strategic outlook. Sooner or later they will have to come to terms not just that they aren't the power they once were, but also that they will not see a return to that power. Keeping such an outlook in mind though could lead to an increasingly confrontational Russia; one trying to gather whatever power it can while it has the ability to do so.

Top 5 on my radar

1. The biggest news of the day involves the International Criminal Court. For the first time in its history, the ICC has issued an arrest warrant for a sitting head of state. That warrant was issued today for President Omar al-Bashir of Sudan. The warrant cites two counts of war crimes and several counts of crimes against humanity, mostly in regards to the on-going violence in Darfur.

Al-Bashir responded by kicking several aid agencies out Sudan, including Medicins sans Frontieres and OXFAM. The move does not have global approval. A number of Africans outside of Sudan fear the impact the warrant will have on peace negotiations.

For my part there are a few other consequences I worry about. First would be a coup. The people of Sudan are aware of the pariah state al-Bashir has created out of their nation. This could be a last straw. Watch for increased acts of violent resistance to the government in Khartoum over the next few weeks or months.

Even without a coup though, I'm curious to see how this warrant will be served. Likely it won't be, and will instead become just a symbolic gesture. None of the options for serving it are too appealing. An invasion by Western forces, perhaps a French contingent- doubtful. An incursion by the Sudan People's Liberation Army with Western air and logistical support- doubtful and messy. Perhaps a coalition from the African Union moves in to take care of business- doubtful, but the best option of the three. It would be a good move for the African Union to step in and police up their own. Could have good long term consequences for the AU.

2. The Afghanistan election commission has rejected the dates for the upcoming national election set by President Hamid Karzai. In fairness to Karzai, these weren't the dates he actually wanted. He had originally wanted elections to be in August. This was viewed as the earliest there would be enough security to hold successful elections. Unfortunately, Karzai's term ends in May and the Afghan constitution doesn't address the issue of who would step in for the intervening months. Karzai's opposition wasn't too keen on him having the extra unconstitutional time in power and, after raising a stink, got Karzai to name May as the time elections would be held (side note- This was not wise of them. Elections in May don't give them enough time to campaign and the victory would likely go to Karzai. Elections in August would give them months to harp on the fact that Karzai is in office unconstitutionally).

These elections are awfully important. Political stability is a must in order for Americans to see any success in the upcoming troop surge into Afghanistan. These elections will have long term effects on Afghan stability.

3. Hugo Chavez, hot off the referendum win allowing him unlimited terms in office, has nationalized the American corporation Cargill. Chavez accused the company of trying to evade price controls. We'll be seeing more of this from Chavez in the near future. These actions allow him to show Venezuelans that he is doing something, and sticking it to the gringos while he's at it. Plus, as the economy tanks and oil prices stay in the doldrums, Chavez needs the resources so he can keep funding his 21st century socialism. Unfortunately for him, there are only so many companies out there to nationalize; his house of cards will collapse eventually.

4. Newly friendly China (People's Republic of China for you Communists out there) offered to negotiate with Taiwan (Republic of China for you Nationalists out there) to end hostilities. Relations have grown significantly cheerier between the two as of late. Flights no longer have to be routed through Hong Kong; instead, direct routes fly from China to Taiwan. Economic activity is flourishing across the straits. And to think, it was only a couple of years ago when China seriously considered invading Taiwan, conducting military exercises and staging hundreds of missiles on the coast, all while the U.S. was tied down in Afghanistan and Iraq. This is promising.

5. A South Carolina psychiatrist believes ecstasy can be used to treat soldiers with PTSD. Apparently, while high on ecstasy, soldiers are better able to dig deep into their emotions. One soldier who participated in trials had this to say: "It’s basically like years of therapy in two or three hours."

I won't get into the science of it, or if I think it could be effective. Let me just say that I'm not so certain it's a good idea to prescribe ecstasy to soldiers for a condition that can be easily faked. There may be a knucklehead or two who will try and take advantage of it. These are the same guys who miss alcohol so much in basic training that they pretend to be sick so they are prescribed a bottle of NyQuil- and then proceed to drink the whole bottle in one sitting. Free ecstasy is not a good idea.

Secretary of State Clinton reads this blog!

How else can you explain this, just two days after I recommend a diplomatic surge into Syria?

The U.S. government will dispatch two officials to the Syrian capital to explore Washington's relationship with Damascus, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton announced Tuesday.
"There are a number of issues that we have between Syria and the United States, as well as the larger regional issues that Syria obviously poses," she said.

Madam Secretary, I thank you for your loyal readership. You should know, Mrs. 8th Pillar is a huge fan. I look forward to shaping future policy decisions.

Relations with Syria

A U.N. special tribunal for Lebanon began today. Its purpose is to try those responsible for the assassination of Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri in 2005. Hariri was very popular among Lebanese; though not so much with the Syrians. He had pushed hard for an end to the 29 year occupation of Lebanon by Syrian forces. Unfortunately for Hariri, Syria wasn't so agreeable. Indications are that Syria helped orchestrate the car-bomb assassination of Hariri to nip in the bud calls for their withdrawal from Lebanon.

As so often happens though, Syria's meddling had the opposite effect. In what is known as the Ceder Revolution, large numbers of Lebanese citizens took to the streets demanding an end to the occupation. International furor over the assassination increased pressure on Syria's President al-Assad to withdraw. Several fellow Arab governments even demanded an end to the occupation. Seeing the writing on the wall, all Syrian personnel were out of Lebanon in less than two months.

Aside from the prospect of seeing justice achieved in a part of the world from which it is too often absent, the most interesting aspect of the tribunal will be how it affects Syria's relations with the rest of the world. Syria is a member of the West's rogues gallery. They have a solid working relationship with Iran, act as financier and staging area to a number of terrorist organizations, and are possibly interested in building a nuclear reactor with North Korean assistance.

As of late however, Syria has shown an interest in rehabilitating their image. Most notably, President al-Assad recently disclosed that Syria and Israel have been conducting secret peace negotiations. This would be a big step, as the two are technically still at war and any agreement between them likely will involve an Israeli pull-back from the Golan Heights and a halt to Syrian assistance to Hezbollah and Hamas.

The special tribunal for Rafik Hariri's assassination has the potential to air much of Syria's dirty laundry. If Syria feels as though they are being scapegoated or unfairly treated, they may very well end the negotiations with Israel. Similarly, with the tribunal being Western backed, if it comes own too harshly on Syria the result could be an end to rapprochement with the West and a renewal of relations with Iran and North Korea.

The judges and prosecutors should do their job and seek justice. Worrying about whether and how the trial may affect Syria's relations with the world is beyond their mandate. However, someone will have to handle the fallout. That responsibility should fall on diplomats, and they need to be ready and waiting to resolve whatever complications arise out of the tribunal's proceedings.