10 March 2009

Russia's Number 1!!! (and disappearing)

The number one user of heroin that is, at least according to Russia. Following a 70% increase in seizures of heroin when compared to last year, Russia now estimates there are 2.5 million heroin users out of a population of 140 million.

This does not bode well for Russia's demographics. Widespread poverty and rampant alcoholism have already left Russian males with an average life span of 61 years, and Russia is the only industrialized country to have seen a drop in average life spans. The total population drops by over 500,000 each year, though the state has tried their best to reverse this trend; a new holiday, Family Contact Day, has been created during which couples are supposed to remain home from work and do their part to repopulate Mother Russia.

Looking at population pyramids for Russia, one can see that by 2050, there are very few young; their pyramid doesn't actually look too much like a pyramid.

Obviously, such a change in demographics will be a disaster to Russia's economy in the long term, as there will be fewer and fewer workers supporting more and more elderly. This will likely also have large consequences for Russia's grand strategic outlook. Sooner or later they will have to come to terms not just that they aren't the power they once were, but also that they will not see a return to that power. Keeping such an outlook in mind though could lead to an increasingly confrontational Russia; one trying to gather whatever power it can while it has the ability to do so.

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