Relations with Syria

A U.N. special tribunal for Lebanon began today. Its purpose is to try those responsible for the assassination of Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri in 2005. Hariri was very popular among Lebanese; though not so much with the Syrians. He had pushed hard for an end to the 29 year occupation of Lebanon by Syrian forces. Unfortunately for Hariri, Syria wasn't so agreeable. Indications are that Syria helped orchestrate the car-bomb assassination of Hariri to nip in the bud calls for their withdrawal from Lebanon.

As so often happens though, Syria's meddling had the opposite effect. In what is known as the Ceder Revolution, large numbers of Lebanese citizens took to the streets demanding an end to the occupation. International furor over the assassination increased pressure on Syria's President al-Assad to withdraw. Several fellow Arab governments even demanded an end to the occupation. Seeing the writing on the wall, all Syrian personnel were out of Lebanon in less than two months.

Aside from the prospect of seeing justice achieved in a part of the world from which it is too often absent, the most interesting aspect of the tribunal will be how it affects Syria's relations with the rest of the world. Syria is a member of the West's rogues gallery. They have a solid working relationship with Iran, act as financier and staging area to a number of terrorist organizations, and are possibly interested in building a nuclear reactor with North Korean assistance.

As of late however, Syria has shown an interest in rehabilitating their image. Most notably, President al-Assad recently disclosed that Syria and Israel have been conducting secret peace negotiations. This would be a big step, as the two are technically still at war and any agreement between them likely will involve an Israeli pull-back from the Golan Heights and a halt to Syrian assistance to Hezbollah and Hamas.

The special tribunal for Rafik Hariri's assassination has the potential to air much of Syria's dirty laundry. If Syria feels as though they are being scapegoated or unfairly treated, they may very well end the negotiations with Israel. Similarly, with the tribunal being Western backed, if it comes own too harshly on Syria the result could be an end to rapprochement with the West and a renewal of relations with Iran and North Korea.

The judges and prosecutors should do their job and seek justice. Worrying about whether and how the trial may affect Syria's relations with the world is beyond their mandate. However, someone will have to handle the fallout. That responsibility should fall on diplomats, and they need to be ready and waiting to resolve whatever complications arise out of the tribunal's proceedings.