Relations with Syria

A U.N. special tribunal for Lebanon began today. Its purpose is to try those responsible for the assassination of Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri in 2005. Hariri was very popular among Lebanese; though not so much with the Syrians. He had pushed hard for an end to the 29 year occupation of Lebanon by Syrian forces. Unfortunately for Hariri, Syria wasn't so agreeable. Indications are that Syria helped orchestrate the car-bomb assassination of Hariri to nip in the bud calls for their withdrawal from Lebanon.

As so often happens though, Syria's meddling had the opposite effect. In what is known as the Ceder Revolution, large numbers of Lebanese citizens took to the streets demanding an end to the occupation. International furor over the assassination increased pressure on Syria's President al-Assad to withdraw. Several fellow Arab governments even demanded an end to the occupation. Seeing the writing on the wall, all Syrian personnel were out of Lebanon in less than two months.

Aside from the prospect of seeing justice achieved in a part of the world from which it is too often absent, the most interesting aspect of the tribunal will be how it affects Syria's relations with the rest of the world. Syria is a member of the West's rogues gallery. They have a solid working relationship with Iran, act as financier and staging area to a number of terrorist organizations, and are possibly interested in building a nuclear reactor with North Korean assistance.

As of late however, Syria has shown an interest in rehabilitating their image. Most notably, President al-Assad recently disclosed that Syria and Israel have been conducting secret peace negotiations. This would be a big step, as the two are technically still at war and any agreement between them likely will involve an Israeli pull-back from the Golan Heights and a halt to Syrian assistance to Hezbollah and Hamas.

The special tribunal for Rafik Hariri's assassination has the potential to air much of Syria's dirty laundry. If Syria feels as though they are being scapegoated or unfairly treated, they may very well end the negotiations with Israel. Similarly, with the tribunal being Western backed, if it comes own too harshly on Syria the result could be an end to rapprochement with the West and a renewal of relations with Iran and North Korea.

The judges and prosecutors should do their job and seek justice. Worrying about whether and how the trial may affect Syria's relations with the world is beyond their mandate. However, someone will have to handle the fallout. That responsibility should fall on diplomats, and they need to be ready and waiting to resolve whatever complications arise out of the tribunal's proceedings.

The 8th Pillar- Entertainment Edition!

It's awards season, and I wanted to join in the fun. Though they walked away without any Oscars, I want to highlight two foreign films that received nominations.

The first is "Der Baader Meinhof Komplex." This film tells the story of the Red Army Faction's beginnings. The RAF was a leftist terrorist organization operating in West Germany primarily during the 1970's. This group provides a how-to guide for running a terrorist organization in a western nation.



The second movie is titled "Waltz with Bashir." It's an animated documentary following an Israeli veteran of the 1982 Lebanon War as he confronts his inner demons and hazy memories of war.



The final addition to the Entertainment Edition!, involves a lovely singing group out of my favorite former Soviet republic in the Caucasus- Georgia. As we're all aware, Georgia was pummeled this summer by the Russians. Depending on who you believe, Russia was either defending Russian citizens in South Ossetia or trying to show the Americans they're still the big man in the region. Either way, to use the technical military term, Georgia got spanked. Bad. But fear not lovers of freedom, Georgia has finally decided to launch a counter-attack. This year's Eurovision song contest is being held in Moscow. The Georgian entry features a song entitled "We Don't Wanna Put In." This is a not-so-subtle dig at Former Russian President and current Russian Prime Minister Putin. It has not yet been decided whether the official Kremlin response will be to drop the band out of a window , accidentally shoot them in the head, or poison them with Polonium- but with Putin involved, who knows...they may do all three.

Israeli Elections

The Israeli elections are finally upon us. I for one am excited to see how Kadima fares in their first real election test (I don't consider 2006 to have been a real test- they still had that new party smell and were enjoying the Sharon sympathy bump). Tzipi and crew have been trailing the Netanyahu led Likud in polls leading up to the election, though exit polls so far today show a slight Kadima advantage.

The results of this election could make for an interesting twist in the Israeli-Arab peace process: President Obama has shown a healthy amount of interest in the region (Calling all the major players on his first day in office, granting his first interview to an Arabic news outlet, appointing George Mitchell as Special Envoy); Sarkozy has been his hyperactive self in trying to broker cease fires when conflicts erupt, with more or less positive results; Turkey has been eager to show off their clout. The current mess of the Palestinians has to be cleared up, but who would want it to be easy anyhow, right?

The prospect of Netanyahu having another term as Prime Minister intrigues me the most. I can't help but think he's the right person for the job. During his stint as Prime Minister, Netanyahu showed a willingness to engage the Palestinians in serious negotiations (even if Wye River remains un-implemented). His remarkable banking and other economic reforms while Finance Minister lead me to believe he could help Israel weather the global financial crisis.

I seem to want to analogize Netanyahu to Nixon and Reagan. I've heard it said that Nixon was the only man who could have reached out and opened relations with China. He had cut his political teeth on the House Un-American Activities Committee. His time as a Senator was largely one big anti-communism tirade after another. Had a person without Nixon's staunch anti-Communist reputation tried to open relations with China, they would have been attacked as being a pinko sympathizer. But no one could accuse Nixon of such things. Likewise, Reagan was no friend of the "Evil Empire" and he had the arms race to prove it. His reputation left him well suited for warming the relationship between the U.S. and the U.S.S.R. A man with a lessor anti-communist track record could not have done it.

Back to Netanyahu, whatever one may think of him, it would be hard to call the man a friend of the Palestinians. Which might leave him ideally placed to advance the peace process. An interesting prospect at least; I'll just have to wait and see how many Israelis agree.