Blown Out of Proportion: Swine Flu Edition

A 15 year old comes home with his hair dyed purple and a a shiny new piercing in his ear. His dad is furious "Son," he says, "I said you could dye your hair and pierce your ear when pigs fly!" The son replies, "But dad, It's all over the news...the swine flu."
(this joke comes courtesy of Mrs. 8th Pillar)

Turn on the TV and chances are high that you'll end up hearing some warnings about the danger of the swine flu, or H1N1 for you pig farmers out there. The news is flush with comparisons to previous flu pandemics and warnings to stay away from anyone who happens to sneeze. Even Vice-President Biden is getting in on the fun, saying that he would not allow his family to travel on an airplane for fear of being infected. But is all this hullabaloo warranted? Should I really be stocking up on NyQuil, Kleenex, and ammo for my handgun? Is this the beginning of the end; a flupocalypse if you will?

NO!

Let's look at the facts and crunch the numbers. The Spanish Influenza of 1918-1919 (oddly named as it began at an army base in Haskell County, Kansas) killed 50-100 million people, or 2.5-5% of the world population, in a mere 6 months. Of these deaths, 675,000 were Americans, which, considering the pandemic started in the U.S., is not too shabby. A rapid U.S. Army expansion and poor sanitation helped spread the virus . When these troops went abroad they brought the virus with them, spreading it to other armies. Weakened and malnourished as a result of World War One, populations the world over were especially susceptible to the pandemic.

Since the Spanish Influenza, there have been two other major outbreaks. One in 1957, killing two million globally and 70,000 in America, and another in 1968 which claimed one million victims worldwide and 30,000 Americans. On any given year, roughly 250,000 people die from the flu.

The number of Americans as a percentage of total worldwide victims breaks down as follows for each of the three pandemics:
1918-19: .8%
1957: .035%
1968: .03%

Given that during each of these time periods, Americans made up more than 5% of the total global population, it is clear that the U.S. experiences very low amounts of comparative influenza deaths. This is mostly the result of the strong public health system in the U.S.

The conclusion is that even if the swine flu suddenly became deadly and widespread, Americans don't have too much to worry about. The U.S. is comparatively in the clear. However, because this is a blog (mostly) about international conflict, let us take the lessons learned from this influenza discussion and apply them to biological weapon terrorist attacks.

A lot of people make a fuss about how easy it would be for a terrorist to attack using biological agents. This is misleading at best. First of all, it is no cake walk to develop biological agents, let alone weaponize them. Like any good businessmen, the terrorists want the most bang for their buck. This is why they usually stick to tried and true methods like suicide vests and car bombs. In order for a biological attack to be worth their time, it would have to be highly infectious; otherwise, might as well use conventional explosives. But a highly infectious agent would spread globally and be impossible for the terrorists to control. Those most likely to be hurt the greatest are underdeveloped countries of the sort where terrorists tend to come from. It's quite a catch-22. Either use a controllable, non infectious agent and take great risks for no more payoff than a much less risky conventional attack; or try and develop something highly infectious which would likely hurt their own supporters far more than it would hurt Americans.

A machine that can read minds?

Well, India thinks it has one. A woman in India was convicted of murder based mainly on evidence from a brain scanner, basically a lie detector on crack. This brain scanning machine is called The Brain Electrical Oscillations Signature test. The test administrator makes short, detailed statements in the first person which recount the crime as it allegedly occurred. The accused is attached to the machine and does not say a single word during the test; his or her brain tells it all for him or her. The machine produces pictures of the brain activity. A higher level of activity in a particular region of the brain means that the person connected to the machine has experienced the statement the test administrator made. Hence, if the test administrator says, “I stabbed John on Tuesday”, and the test taker’s mind becomes very active in a particular area of the brain, it means that the test taker is remembering stabbing John on the day in question.

The U.S. has been researching brain based lie detection in order to use it in counterterrorism investigations. It is thought that this technology will eliminate torture. If we could read minds, harsh interrogation methods will no longer be needed because we will already know what is on the alleged terrorist’s mind.

If brain scans are used in court in the United States, it is thought that numerous amendments to the Constitution may be violated. Hence, this is a highly controversial area. Scientists across the globe are split on whether this technology is accurate. Some believe it to be 97% accurate; others believe that it is completely inaccurate. I am unsure if we will ever know whether it is accurate when used in the criminal prosecution system because criminals will not tell if they lied and actually committed the crime. Therefore, this machine is unable to be tested when it comes to criminals unless there is plenty of other evidence substantiating the crime. However, in that case, the brain scanner’s use will be unnecessary. Oh, what a dilemma.

There needs to be more independent studies conducted on this brain scanner; it needs to be reviewed by more scientists before it will gain credibility in the field of science, and in U.S. Courts. If credible, this brain scanner will transform the legal and counterterrorism fields.

It's the economy, stupid

While I'm on a demographics kick, allow me to demonstrate one of the reasons why there are so many terrorists coming out of the Middle East. You know the old saying, "idle hands are the Devil's playthings"? Substitute "terrorist organization's" for "Devil's" and you may start to get the picture. In counties all across the Middle East, there are rather large amounts of youths. Unfortunately, there aren't jobs to keep them all busy. These are men (no, I'm not forgetting you women out there, but this is the Middle East I'm talking about here) who desperately want to work and earn a living. It's a matter of honor. But without an economy able to support their disproportionately large numbers, they are left disaffected. From there it's rather easy for some firebrand or ideologue to come along and convince these youths that the state of their economy (and whatever other woes plague society) are the fault of the Western oppressors. Especially when they offer a salary, as so many terrorist organizations do.

Here's a look at the population pyramid for the Gaza Strip. It's a similar story in countries across the greater Middle East.

In contrast, here is the population pyramid for the United States.

This is why it is so crucial that any plan to combat the type of extremism we are now facing in the Middle East addresses the widespread economic problems facing the region. Most people would rather go to work than blow themselves up at a discotheque. The West can't kill its way into the victory circle. Provide jobs and opportunity however, and suddenly all these disaffected youths who want to remake the world quickly become invested in maintaining the status quo.

How important is this issue? Very. To give an idea of what is looming, I'll end with Saudi Arabia's projected population pyramid for 2050. Again, it's the same all throughout the Middle East. I'll even give a hint- it involves lots and lots of young people looking for purpose in their life. If they can't fulfill that purpose with employment, I guarantee they'll find another outlet; one the West may not like very much. Diplomacy and treaties do help; but any comprehensive Middle East peace plan needs to address the area's core economic needs if it is to be a lasting peace.

The 8th Pillar- Entertainment Edition!

It's awards season, and I wanted to join in the fun. Though they walked away without any Oscars, I want to highlight two foreign films that received nominations.

The first is "Der Baader Meinhof Komplex." This film tells the story of the Red Army Faction's beginnings. The RAF was a leftist terrorist organization operating in West Germany primarily during the 1970's. This group provides a how-to guide for running a terrorist organization in a western nation.



The second movie is titled "Waltz with Bashir." It's an animated documentary following an Israeli veteran of the 1982 Lebanon War as he confronts his inner demons and hazy memories of war.



The final addition to the Entertainment Edition!, involves a lovely singing group out of my favorite former Soviet republic in the Caucasus- Georgia. As we're all aware, Georgia was pummeled this summer by the Russians. Depending on who you believe, Russia was either defending Russian citizens in South Ossetia or trying to show the Americans they're still the big man in the region. Either way, to use the technical military term, Georgia got spanked. Bad. But fear not lovers of freedom, Georgia has finally decided to launch a counter-attack. This year's Eurovision song contest is being held in Moscow. The Georgian entry features a song entitled "We Don't Wanna Put In." This is a not-so-subtle dig at Former Russian President and current Russian Prime Minister Putin. It has not yet been decided whether the official Kremlin response will be to drop the band out of a window , accidentally shoot them in the head, or poison them with Polonium- but with Putin involved, who knows...they may do all three.

Did the Tamil Tigers just pull a rope-a-dope?

A quick backgrounder for those not familiar with the Sri Lankan civil war. The Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE, or Tamil Tigers) have been waging a bloody insurgency against the government of Sri Lanka since the 1970's. The LTTE are fighting for a ethnically Tamil state to be carved out of the mostly Sinhalese Sri Lanka. Throughout the years the LTTE has been a force to be reckoned with; they have controlled enormous chunks of territory and have employed their own naval and air force assets in their fight for a Tamil homeland. The conflict has been extremely bloody, showcasing several horrific suicide campaigns by the Tigers (that's right folks, contrary to redneck wisdom, the most prolific suicide bombers in history are neither Muslim nor from the Middle East; they are secular Hindu nationalists off the coast of India). The Tigers use the tactic often enough to have entire military units of suiciders, called Black Tigers (Black Sea Tigers for those who strike through use of boats or scuba).

Recently though, the fight has been going extremely well for the Sri Lankan government. The LTTE have lost nearly all their territory, including: Kilinochchi, the administrative HQ of the Tigers during the last 10 years; the vital Elephant Pass; and the whole of the Jaffna Pennisula. In fact, the LTTE holds only approximately 100 square km and the Sri Lankan army is encircling the last town still under tiger control, Puthukkudduyirppu.

The cost of this success has been high, and borne mostly by Tamil civilians. There are concerns that the army is paying little attention to the well-being of the civilian population in their quest to eradicate the Tigers. Some 250,000 have been displaced throughout the north and east of the country. The free press has also become a casualty of the fighting, with journalists facing interrogation, abduction, and even death, with little to no action taken by the government to safeguard their rights.

The title of this post references the attack launched today by the LTTE's air force against the capital of Sri Lanka, Colombo. The Tigers have launched only a handful of airborne attacks, though just having the capability is fairly impressive for an insurgent group. Two LTTE planes managed to drop one bomb near the Sri Lankan air force HQ before being shot down or crashing kamikaze style in the city. I do not think that this is the beginning of a Tiger offensive; more likely, it is one of many LTTE death throes we will see in the upcoming weeks.

A new challenge for the government will begin as the fighting winds down. Even without the LTTE around, roughly 10% of the population is Tamil and feels persecuted by and distrustful of the Sinhalese majority. They reside in land that has seen fighting for much of the last 30 years. They have no economy to speak of, and with the LTTE gone, will have no administrative structures to fall back on. If Sri Lanka desires a lasting calm, they will need to build up the economic, political, and social structures of the Tamil people. Failing to address these issues will likely lead to more fighting.

Consequences of Obama closing Guantanamo

Last week, Interpol released an Orange alert at the request of Saudi Arabia. The Kingdom wants assistance gathering intelligence and/or capturing 85 terrorists with known links to al-Qaeda. Nothing too newsworthy about the alert, except that 11 of the 85 had been recently released from American custody at Guantanamo Bay.

This only adds to the debate over what to do with the detainees when the base closes. In the long run, a few dozen released terrorists won't do much harm; at least not as much as would be done by leaving Guantanamo open. The detention camp has hurt this country, both in reputation and by fueling a new generation of terrorists. But there is no need to let obviously dangerous individuals roam free.

President Obama was understandably under a lot of pressure to close the detention center following his campaign rhetoric, and he was right to make it a high priority. But perhaps he should have had a plan first.

If it looks like a duck, walks like a duck, and sounds like a duck…it may not be a duck

There is a tendency for people to want to overuse the terrorist label when describing criminal acts. Case in point is the recent bombing of a doctor in Arkansas. The good doctor was leaving his home when a bomb exploded, severely injuring him. The local police chief was quick to call the event a terrorist attack. While horrible, it is almost certainly not an act of terrorism.

Here's the definition of terrorism I learned many moons ago:

"Terrorism is an organized strategy for bringing about political, social, economic, or religious change, characterized by the use or threat of violence to coerce or otherwise influence an enemy. It is usually carried out by non-state or clandestine agents lacking in political power and material resources and is difficult to retaliate against. By striking sporadically and without warning, terrorists deliberately seek to create a climate of fear, which gives their attacks an impact disproportionate to the resources invested in them. Terrorism is ultimately a form of communication targeted at multiple audiences."

I keep shaking it, but my magic 8-ball tells me the chances are slim that this doctor in Arkansas was targeted by terrorists. More likely, he is the victim of some horrendous criminal act.

This only warrants attention because throwing around the terrorist label does nothing but help terrorists. The whole point of terrorist acts are to- wait for it- spread terror. They seek to instill fear in the population. Terrorists are naturally weaker than their enemies; if they were stronger, they could employ conventional military tactics and not have to resort to small-scale, sporadic attacks. The effects of fear are much more powerful than any single attack could be. Flying is a safer form of travel than driving; however, following 9/11, huge numbers of citizens elected to drive where they previously would have flown. This resulted in an extra number of deaths on the nation's roadways many times more than that of the 9/11 attacks. Fear of additional terrorist attacks provided an excuse to invade Iraq; an excursion which served as a huge recruitment boost to a number of terrorist groups.

Labeling criminal acts as terrorist only makes people needlessly afraid of terrorist attacks. So please, all you Barney Fife's out there, resist the temptation to label crime as terrorism. We don't need to do the terrorist's work for them. All the security measures in the world don't matter if we elect to hand terrorists free wins.