Did the Tamil Tigers just pull a rope-a-dope?

A quick backgrounder for those not familiar with the Sri Lankan civil war. The Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE, or Tamil Tigers) have been waging a bloody insurgency against the government of Sri Lanka since the 1970's. The LTTE are fighting for a ethnically Tamil state to be carved out of the mostly Sinhalese Sri Lanka. Throughout the years the LTTE has been a force to be reckoned with; they have controlled enormous chunks of territory and have employed their own naval and air force assets in their fight for a Tamil homeland. The conflict has been extremely bloody, showcasing several horrific suicide campaigns by the Tigers (that's right folks, contrary to redneck wisdom, the most prolific suicide bombers in history are neither Muslim nor from the Middle East; they are secular Hindu nationalists off the coast of India). The Tigers use the tactic often enough to have entire military units of suiciders, called Black Tigers (Black Sea Tigers for those who strike through use of boats or scuba).

Recently though, the fight has been going extremely well for the Sri Lankan government. The LTTE have lost nearly all their territory, including: Kilinochchi, the administrative HQ of the Tigers during the last 10 years; the vital Elephant Pass; and the whole of the Jaffna Pennisula. In fact, the LTTE holds only approximately 100 square km and the Sri Lankan army is encircling the last town still under tiger control, Puthukkudduyirppu.

The cost of this success has been high, and borne mostly by Tamil civilians. There are concerns that the army is paying little attention to the well-being of the civilian population in their quest to eradicate the Tigers. Some 250,000 have been displaced throughout the north and east of the country. The free press has also become a casualty of the fighting, with journalists facing interrogation, abduction, and even death, with little to no action taken by the government to safeguard their rights.

The title of this post references the attack launched today by the LTTE's air force against the capital of Sri Lanka, Colombo. The Tigers have launched only a handful of airborne attacks, though just having the capability is fairly impressive for an insurgent group. Two LTTE planes managed to drop one bomb near the Sri Lankan air force HQ before being shot down or crashing kamikaze style in the city. I do not think that this is the beginning of a Tiger offensive; more likely, it is one of many LTTE death throes we will see in the upcoming weeks.

A new challenge for the government will begin as the fighting winds down. Even without the LTTE around, roughly 10% of the population is Tamil and feels persecuted by and distrustful of the Sinhalese majority. They reside in land that has seen fighting for much of the last 30 years. They have no economy to speak of, and with the LTTE gone, will have no administrative structures to fall back on. If Sri Lanka desires a lasting calm, they will need to build up the economic, political, and social structures of the Tamil people. Failing to address these issues will likely lead to more fighting.