Venezuela's big choice

The people of Venezuela are voting today on a change to their country's constitution. The change, if approved, will abolish term limits for elected officials; effectively granting Hugo Chavez full dictator status. Though voters rejected a similar measure in 2007, polls show that this election will be close.

Mr. Chavez rose to prominence in 1993 when, as a Colonel in the Venezuelan armed forces, he led an failed coup attempt. After several years in prison, Chavez ran for president in 1998, ultimately winning with 56% of the vote. He ran on a platform of helping Venezuela's many poor, the support of whom he still enjoys at ridiculously high levels. Since first being elected, Chavez has twice been reelected, has emerged victorious from a recall referendum, and survived a coup attempt in which he was captured.

Chavez is known the world over for his political antics and showmanship. He hosts a weekly radio program called "Alo Presidente" (Hello, Mr. President) during which he speaks for hours at a time. Topics range from his perceived victimization by America to the evils of capitalism, and from his life as a child to his daily schedule as president. As president, Chavez enjoys putting on a show to make a point; the list of countries Chavez has broken diplomatic ties with (mostly only for a few weeks at a time) is long. It was Chavez who stood in front of U.N. General Assembly and called George Bush a devil who smelled of sulfur. This has earned him many disciples throughout Latin America, where leftist governments praise Chavez for standing up to the West.

But regional governments support Chavez for more than his big mouth; he also doles out huge amounts of money to prop up his fellow leftists. This was less of a problem for Venezuela when oil prices were at record highs. But with the recent decline, Chavez is going to have to make some difficult choices between cutting support for like-minded governments or cutting programs in the quest to implement his "21st Century Socialism."

Venezuela's oil requires extra refining and fetches less on the open market than oil from the Middle East. And it's not just the price drop hurting the country's finances (now at less than half of last year's average); Venezuela's production capacity has dropped by nearly 1 million bpd over the last decade, due mostly to Chavez's redirection of research and exploration funds from the state owned oil company into social welfare programs. The country suffered from 31% inflation last year, and has already had to dip heavily into their currency reserves. On top of all the economic problems, Venezuela has also become one of the more dangerous countries in the world, with a murder rate that has more than doubled since Chavez came to office.

My hunch is that the people of Venezuela will not abolish term limits today; though even if they do, I don't think it necessarily means Chavez will become president-for-life. As already noted, Chavez owes much of his support to the large numbers of rural and urban poor in Venezuela. These people give themselves to Chavez because of his expansive social programs; programs which he can no longer finance. Despite Chavez's slight authoritarian bent, there is a thriving opposition in Venezuela. If the poor begin flocking to them, Chavez will have to step down or call out the army to stay in power. Unfortunately he may be more inclined to pick the latter of the two.

***UPDATE***
Well, apparently my hunches don't amount to much. By an approximately a 54%-46% margin, Venezuelan voters did away with term limits. This should be interesting.