Showing posts with label diplomacy. Show all posts
Showing posts with label diplomacy. Show all posts

31 March 2009

Relations with Iran. Or, Aretha had it right this whole time, R-E-S-P-E-C-T

Say what you will about the President, but the man has a way with details. Over the past week or so there have been several interviews with administration officials, including the POTUS himself and SecState Clinton, during which they referred to Iran as the Islamic Republic of Iran. I don't recall hearing the country's full name used at all during the Bush administration; he preferred "Iran," "Axis of evil," or "threat to world peace." It's a very nice touch given that the U.S. is currently attempting to build a relationship with Iran based on respect rather than fear or bullying.

The budding U.S./Iran relationship hit a high note today when the U.S. envoy to Afghanistan and the Iranian foreign minister held an impromptu meeting during an international conference on Afghanistan. Afghanistan may be the glue that could hold together a sure-to-be-rocky-at-best working relationship between the U.S. and Iran.

The U.S. for obvious reasons wants to see a stable Afghanistan. For starters, stability and a strong government could mean an end to Afghan terrorist safe-havens. The greater the stability, the less American troops would be needed and the more energies could be focused on other problem areas of the world like Israel or North Korea. A stable Afghanistan would likely ease some of the tension in Pakistan's border areas as well.

Iran too has its reasons for wanting calm in Afghanistan. The Taliban were fierce enemies of Iran from the start, and the two almost came to war in 1998. Iran also seeks an end to the mass poppy production in Afghanistan, as huge numbers of Iran's many unemployed are now addicted to drugs.

Teamwork between the U.S. and Iran has many potential dividends to yield. It is commonly accepted that Iran supplied Iraqi insurgents with EFPs (Explosively Formed Penetrators)- a very deadly type of roadside bomb. Keeping the advanced weaponry at Iran's disposal out of the hands of Afghan insurgents would help keep coalition casualties down. Current land routes through Pakistan have come under frequent attack recently, and the impending closure of Manas Air Force Base in Kyrgyzstan, through which the bulk of supplies flows into Afghanistan, will leave the U.S. and its allies in search of additional resupply routes. Were relations to improve dramatically, Iran could provide an important overland resupply route into Afghanistan.

Finally, and perhaps most importantly, if the U.S. and Iran find that they are able to work together on the Afghanistan issue, they may find it easier to work together on other pressing issues- such as Iran's nuclear developments. A little respect from the U.S. could go a long way.

03 March 2009

Secretary of State Clinton reads this blog!

How else can you explain this, just two days after I recommend a diplomatic surge into Syria?
The U.S. government will dispatch two officials to the Syrian capital to explore Washington's relationship with Damascus, Secretary of State Hillary Clinton announced Tuesday.
"There are a number of issues that we have between Syria and the United States, as well as the larger regional issues that Syria obviously poses," she said.
Madam Secretary, I thank you for your loyal readership. You should know, Mrs. 8th Pillar is a huge fan. I look forward to shaping future policy decisions.

01 March 2009

Relations with Syria

A U.N. special tribunal for Lebanon began today. Its purpose is to try those responsible for the assassination of Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri in 2005. Hariri was very popular among Lebanese; though not so much with the Syrians. He had pushed hard for an end to the 29 year occupation of Lebanon by Syrian forces. Unfortunately for Hariri, Syria wasn't so agreeable. Indications are that Syria helped orchestrate the car-bomb assassination of Hariri to nip in the bud calls for their withdrawal from Lebanon.

As so often happens though, Syria's meddling had the opposite effect. In what is known as the Ceder Revolution, large numbers of Lebanese citizens took to the streets demanding an end to the occupation. International furor over the assassination increased pressure on Syria's President al-Assad to withdraw. Several fellow Arab governments even demanded an end to the occupation. Seeing the writing on the wall, all Syrian personnel were out of Lebanon in less than two months.

Aside from the prospect of seeing justice achieved in a part of the world from which it is too often absent, the most interesting aspect of the tribunal will be how it affects Syria's relations with the rest of the world. Syria is a member of the West's rogues gallery. They have a solid working relationship with Iran, act as financier and staging area to a number of terrorist organizations, and are possibly interested in building a nuclear reactor with North Korean assistance.

As of late however, Syria has shown an interest in rehabilitating their image. Most notably, President al-Assad recently disclosed that Syria and Israel have been conducting secret peace negotiations. This would be a big step, as the two are technically still at war and any agreement between them likely will involve an Israeli pull-back from the Golan Heights and a halt to Syrian assistance to Hezbollah and Hamas.

The special tribunal for Rafik Hariri's assassination has the potential to air much of Syria's dirty laundry. If Syria feels as though they are being scapegoated or unfairly treated, they may very well end the negotiations with Israel. Similarly, with the tribunal being Western backed, if it comes own too harshly on Syria the result could be an end to rapprochement with the West and a renewal of relations with Iran and North Korea.

The judges and prosecutors should do their job and seek justice. Worrying about whether and how the trial may affect Syria's relations with the world is beyond their mandate. However, someone will have to handle the fallout. That responsibility should fall on diplomats, and they need to be ready and waiting to resolve whatever complications arise out of the tribunal's proceedings.

26 February 2009

Who's on first?

The state department recently named Dennis Ross as a special adviser for the Gulf and Southwest Asia. Those are fairly broad and non-standard regional descriptions, so you might be saying to yourself "Self, I wonder what specific countries that means Dennis Ross will be advising SecState Clinton on?" Fair question. Apparently some inquisitive reporter was wondering the same thing and decided to ask at a state department press briefing on Tuesday. Makes sense- if the state department just named Mr. Ross as a special adviser, then they must know which countries he will be advising on. Right? And surely the briefer will have more than some stock answer about strategic regional advice considering this is a fairly important foreign policy decision. Right?
QUESTION: What is he in charge exactly of?
MR. WOOD: Well, Dennis is –
QUESTION: Is it Iran? And if it’s not Iran – if it’s Iran, why is it not written in the statement?
MR. WOOD: Well, let me just start off by saying, the Secretary is very happy that Dennis Ross agreed to serve as her special advisor for the Gulf and Southwest Asia. What Dennis is going to be charged with doing is trying to integrate policy development and implementation across a number of offices and officials in the State Department. And, you know, he is going to be providing the Secretary with strategic advice. He will be also trying to ensure that there’s a coherence in our policies and strategies across the region.
Let me be clear, he’s not an envoy. He will not be negotiating. He’ll be working on regional issues. He will not be – in terms of negotiating, will not be involved in the peace process. But again, he is going to be advising the Secretary on long-term strategic issues across the region.
QUESTION: Can you give us – well, what is the State Department’s definition geographically of Southwest Asia? What countries does that include?
MR. WOOD: Matt, I didn’t --
QUESTION: No, you guys named an envoy for Southwest Asia. I presume that you know what countries that includes.
MR. WOOD: Yes. Of course, we know. I just – I don’t have the list to run off – you know, right off the top of my head here. But obviously, that’s going to encompass – that region encompasses Iran. It will – you know, it’ll deal with --
QUESTION: Does it include Iraq?
MR. WOOD: Indeed, it does. He is going to be, again, as I said, providing her with advice – strategic advice, looking at the long term, the bigger picture and how we can make sure that our policies are coherent across the board in the region. And as I said, the Secretary is very pleased that Dennis has agreed to do this. He’s got years of experience in the region. And, you know, it’s a daunting task, but it’s one that she felt was necessary.
QUESTION: And so, does it include parts of the Middle East?
MR. WOOD: Yes.
QUESTION: It does? Does it include Syria, and it includes Israel and it includes Jordan?
MR. WOOD: Well, he’ll be looking at the entire region that will include, you know –
QUESTION: Where does that stop? I mean, you know, you have NEA which, you know, runs all the way to Morocco. So does it include –
MR. WOOD: Well, he’s going to be in touch with a number of officials who work on issues throughout this region.
QUESTION: Does it include Morocco, Algeria, Egypt, countries that are within the – within the Middle East or within the Near Eastern Affairs Bureau, but are not necessarily technically part of Southwest Asia?
MR. WOOD: He will be providing advice to the Secretary on a – across that entire region, where appropriate, where she needs it, and that’s the position he will serve.
QUESTION: So he’s going to meet with the leaders in the region as well, so you said he is going to offer an assessment --
MR. WOOD: That’s right. At some point, he will.
QUESTION: -- including the Iranians?
MR. WOOD: Well, I’m not sure at this point. But again, our policy with regard to Iran is under review, so once that review is completed, we’ll be able to go forward vis-à-vis Iran. But until that time --
QUESTION: Well, was there a consideration at some point that you would have a special envoy for Iran? And why didn’t you now go in that direction?
MR. WOOD: Well, a decision was made by the Secretary that she needed broad strategic advice to look at a range of issues across the entire region that we just talked about. And it was felt that his skills could be better used to do that type of work, given the years of experience that he’s had dealing with the Middle East, other parts of the world. And so, again, as I said, Iran will be one of those countries that he will be, you know, looking at in his portfolio. But --
QUESTION: The military sometimes refer to parts of the -stans, Central Asia, as Southwest Asia. Are those included in your --
MR. WOOD: Well, look --
QUESTION: Can you find out? Because, I mean, this is --
MR. WOOD: We can get you that. Yeah, we can get you a breakdown of --
QUESTION: I mean, does this – is there a geographic limit to his portfolio, or is it really an issues-based thing so that he could be dealing with Morocco and Algeria --
MR. WOOD: Yeah.
QUESTION: -- and Tunisia --
MR. WOOD: I would look at it, Matt, as more of a regional --
QUESTION: -- and Kyrgyzstan, and the -stans that are not covered by Ambassador Holbrooke? And does it include Turkey? Does it – you know, there are a lot of unanswered questions from – from the statement last night as to exactly what he’s going to be doing. I mean, I presume it’s all of the Gulf – Saudi Arabia, that makes sense. But does it include Somalia, which is – you know, that there is – does it include – I don’t know --
QUESTION: Or is it (inaudible) Iran?
MR. WOOD: Your question is – you know, let me answer your --
QUESTION: It could be anything. Or is he limited by the geographic --
QUESTION: Or did you just not want to put Iran in the name, and so this is your clever way of doing that?
MR. WOOD: Can I speak now?
QUESTION: Sure.
MR. WOOD: Thank you, and thank you. Look, it’s more – he’s going to be providing advice to the Secretary on a number of regional issues, and I would not try to limit Dennis’s advice to, you know, just those regions. He may have other – you know, he may have advice that he wants to give the Secretary on other issues. I don’t think we’re trying to narrow it here. If you’re looking for a geographical breakdown of those countries that he will be looking --
QUESTION: It would be nice to find out what the State Department considers to be Southwest Asia.
MR. WOOD: We can certainly do that for you.
QUESTION: Thank you.



True to his word, State Department spokesperson Robert Wood was a little more prepared the following day.

QUESTION: Have your ace geographers been able to determine what Southwest Asia is and thereby figure out what exactly Dennis Ross’s mandate is?

MR. WOOD: I’m so shocked that you asked that question. Let me give you my best – our best read of this. From our standpoint, the countries that make up areas of the Gulf and Southwest Asia include Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Yemen, and those are the countries.