04 March 2009

Top 5 on my radar

1. The biggest news of the day involves the International Criminal Court. For the first time in its history, the ICC has issued an arrest warrant for a sitting head of state. That warrant was issued today for President Omar al-Bashir of Sudan. The warrant cites two counts of war crimes and several counts of crimes against humanity, mostly in regards to the on-going violence in Darfur.

Al-Bashir responded by kicking several aid agencies out Sudan, including Medicins sans Frontieres and OXFAM. The move does not have global approval. A number of Africans outside of Sudan fear the impact the warrant will have on peace negotiations.

For my part there are a few other consequences I worry about. First would be a coup. The people of Sudan are aware of the pariah state al-Bashir has created out of their nation. This could be a last straw. Watch for increased acts of violent resistance to the government in Khartoum over the next few weeks or months.

Even without a coup though, I'm curious to see how this warrant will be served. Likely it won't be, and will instead become just a symbolic gesture. None of the options for serving it are too appealing. An invasion by Western forces, perhaps a French contingent- doubtful. An incursion by the Sudan People's Liberation Army with Western air and logistical support- doubtful and messy. Perhaps a coalition from the African Union moves in to take care of business- doubtful, but the best option of the three. It would be a good move for the African Union to step in and police up their own. Could have good long term consequences for the AU.

2. The Afghanistan election commission has rejected the dates for the upcoming national election set by President Hamid Karzai. In fairness to Karzai, these weren't the dates he actually wanted. He had originally wanted elections to be in August. This was viewed as the earliest there would be enough security to hold successful elections. Unfortunately, Karzai's term ends in May and the Afghan constitution doesn't address the issue of who would step in for the intervening months. Karzai's opposition wasn't too keen on him having the extra unconstitutional time in power and, after raising a stink, got Karzai to name May as the time elections would be held (side note- This was not wise of them. Elections in May don't give them enough time to campaign and the victory would likely go to Karzai. Elections in August would give them months to harp on the fact that Karzai is in office unconstitutionally).

These elections are awfully important. Political stability is a must in order for Americans to see any success in the upcoming troop surge into Afghanistan. These elections will have long term effects on Afghan stability.

3. Hugo Chavez, hot off the referendum win allowing him unlimited terms in office, has nationalized the American corporation Cargill. Chavez accused the company of trying to evade price controls. We'll be seeing more of this from Chavez in the near future. These actions allow him to show Venezuelans that he is doing something, and sticking it to the gringos while he's at it. Plus, as the economy tanks and oil prices stay in the doldrums, Chavez needs the resources so he can keep funding his 21st century socialism. Unfortunately for him, there are only so many companies out there to nationalize; his house of cards will collapse eventually.

4. Newly friendly China (People's Republic of China for you Communists out there) offered to negotiate with Taiwan (Republic of China for you Nationalists out there) to end hostilities. Relations have grown significantly cheerier between the two as of late. Flights no longer have to be routed through Hong Kong; instead, direct routes fly from China to Taiwan. Economic activity is flourishing across the straits. And to think, it was only a couple of years ago when China seriously considered invading Taiwan, conducting military exercises and staging hundreds of missiles on the coast, all while the U.S. was tied down in Afghanistan and Iraq. This is promising.

5. A South Carolina psychiatrist believes ecstasy can be used to treat soldiers with PTSD. Apparently, while high on ecstasy, soldiers are better able to dig deep into their emotions. One soldier who participated in trials had this to say: "It’s basically like years of therapy in two or three hours."

I won't get into the science of it, or if I think it could be effective. Let me just say that I'm not so certain it's a good idea to prescribe ecstasy to soldiers for a condition that can be easily faked. There may be a knucklehead or two who will try and take advantage of it. These are the same guys who miss alcohol so much in basic training that they pretend to be sick so they are prescribed a bottle of NyQuil- and then proceed to drink the whole bottle in one sitting. Free ecstasy is not a good idea.

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