A 15 year old comes home with his hair dyed purple and a a shiny new piercing in his ear. His dad is furious "Son," he says, "I said you could dye your hair and pierce your ear when pigs fly!" The son replies, "But dad, It's all over the news...the swine flu."
(this joke comes courtesy of Mrs. 8th Pillar)
Turn on the TV and chances are high that you'll end up hearing some warnings about the danger of the swine flu, or H1N1 for you pig farmers out there. The news is flush with comparisons to previous flu pandemics and warnings to stay away from anyone who happens to sneeze. Even Vice-President Biden is getting in on the fun, saying that he would not allow his family to travel on an airplane for fear of being infected. But is all this hullabaloo warranted? Should I really be stocking up on NyQuil, Kleenex, and ammo for my handgun? Is this the beginning of the end; a flupocalypse if you will?
NO!
Let's look at the facts and crunch the numbers. The Spanish Influenza of 1918-1919 (oddly named as it began at an army base in Haskell County, Kansas) killed 50-100 million people, or 2.5-5% of the world population, in a mere 6 months. Of these deaths, 675,000 were Americans, which, considering the pandemic started in the U.S., is not too shabby. A rapid U.S. Army expansion and poor sanitation helped spread the virus . When these troops went abroad they brought the virus with them, spreading it to other armies. Weakened and malnourished as a result of World War One, populations the world over were especially susceptible to the pandemic.
Since the Spanish Influenza, there have been two other major outbreaks. One in 1957, killing two million globally and 70,000 in America, and another in 1968 which claimed one million victims worldwide and 30,000 Americans. On any given year, roughly 250,000 people die from the flu.
The number of Americans as a percentage of total worldwide victims breaks down as follows for each of the three pandemics:
1918-19: .8%
1957: .035%
1968: .03%
Given that during each of these time periods, Americans made up more than 5% of the total global population, it is clear that the U.S. experiences very low amounts of comparative influenza deaths. This is mostly the result of the strong public health system in the U.S.
The conclusion is that even if the swine flu suddenly became deadly and widespread, Americans don't have too much to worry about. The U.S. is comparatively in the clear. However, because this is a blog (mostly) about international conflict, let us take the lessons learned from this influenza discussion and apply them to biological weapon terrorist attacks.
A lot of people make a fuss about how easy it would be for a terrorist to attack using biological agents. This is misleading at best. First of all, it is no cake walk to develop biological agents, let alone weaponize them. Like any good businessmen, the terrorists want the most bang for their buck. This is why they usually stick to tried and true methods like suicide vests and car bombs. In order for a biological attack to be worth their time, it would have to be highly infectious; otherwise, might as well use conventional explosives. But a highly infectious agent would spread globally and be impossible for the terrorists to control. Those most likely to be hurt the greatest are underdeveloped countries of the sort where terrorists tend to come from. It's quite a catch-22. Either use a controllable, non infectious agent and take great risks for no more payoff than a much less risky conventional attack; or try and develop something highly infectious which would likely hurt their own supporters far more than it would hurt Americans.
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